An Exploratory Study in Forecasting Rounds in Golf

Abstract

A two-phase process was used to forecast demand fluctuation in monthly tourist rounds of golf (TROG) in Myrtle Beach, SC, a major United States tourism area. Myrtle Beach, SC is known as “The Golf Capital of America.” In 2000, Myrtle Beach had over 125 golf clubs. Nine years later, that number has decreased to less than 100 due, in part to a decrease in active vacation golfers. Recent volatility in gasoline prices have added additional negative pressure to the actual TROG being played. This study uses two complementary methods to forecast TROG. Holt-Winters smoothing is adjusted with a variant of Saaty’s Analytical Hierarchy Process to provide additional accuracy as compared to traditional quantitative methods.